Scenario Planning

Sorry folks. I just can't seem to leave the future alone. But I'll make you a deal. Stop at the period if you think public schools and their leaders are enjoying the "hap hap happiest" year ever, channeling Clark Griswold in National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation. Still reading? I predicted that.

As you know, our organization is up to its eyeballs in scenario planning. The Board of Advisors convened Wednesday this week and the Board of Governors and its Executive Committee convene Friday to take a cut at what things might look like over the next five years as NC Triangle school districts respond to certain drivers for change pertinent to leadership development and succession planning.

By tapping the informed opinion of current and past TLA board members, local public school and university professionals, and area business leaders, the Triangle Trends and School Leadership Survey was one means to identify drivers for change. The Survey assumed and sought predictions about seven trend areas important for effectively selecting, retaining and training school leaders.

Smart respondents told us that education funding from all sources will decrease or remain flat, collaborative partnerships with business and higher education will increase, market growth involving new school construction and business start-ups will remain flat, accountability for school leadership results will increase, district staff assigned to provide professional learning will decrease, planning for retiring school leader replacements will increase, and alternative means of delivering leadership development will increase.

We're still in process of identifying two or three key drivers from the seven and how they might inform how TLA, or the work of TLA, shows up in the future. As one of the Advisors observed on Wednesday, the act of looking into our crystal ball ends up telling us as much about who and where we are right now as it does about who and where we'll be five years from now. Another participant remarked that while money is important, not everything that may be improved requires it. Exactly.